Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 20.044584 21.818673 23.781496 26.135112 28.909382 32.113054 36.149630
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.236745 19.528802 22.251585 25.797143 30.409826 36.394177 45.101566
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.351041 17.891812 21.070051 25.479506 31.700623 40.654943 55.687134
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 14.007508 16.680690 20.161158 25.244212 32.930851 45.104051 68.763272
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.998314 15.747279 19.444829 25.083514 34.149221 49.862711 85.499404
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.069906 14.807734 18.580312 24.526456 34.563234 53.335256 102.550370
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.724993 14.619166 18.734564 25.514334 37.763329 63.431879 149.802517
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.125870 14.011437 18.196042 25.288397 38.698131 69.185192 195.906313
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.677887 13.580344 17.872571 25.360322 40.210168 77.187746 280.940735
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.313818 13.240749 17.651193 25.565937 42.041704 87.324497 455.867461
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.959359 12.887862 17.372240 25.621057 43.559861 97.802616 844.891796
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.575454 12.464630 16.942403 25.335435 44.222995 106.057489 1783.115772
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.270545 12.149420 16.673321 25.340540 45.659430 119.272184 19324.588505
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.948620 11.789856 16.303651 25.104704 46.444012 130.973667 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.648194 11.447935 15.939495 24.837588 47.096133 143.393515 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.381089 11.144920 15.621035 24.627737 47.873169 158.378921 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.144134 10.878111 15.347260 24.480277 48.812549 177.012931 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.865951 10.532667 14.914644 23.948232 48.459503 185.974236 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.822766 10.564165 15.150338 24.897989 53.142151 257.144325 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.618853 10.323061 14.879083 24.681697 53.867317 291.485730 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.465828 10.159235 14.738796 24.750980 55.665187 356.605375 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.338165 10.031756 14.657208 24.948429 58.052244 465.094200 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 7.199661 9.880212 14.521421 25.001371 59.929787 606.219399 NaN